 Coastal and Marine Sector SummarySouth Africa has a rich coastal and marine environment that supports the fishing and tourism industries as well as the human settlements that have located there. Although fishing is not one of the main contributors to national GDP, it does play a significant role in contributing to livelihoods and food security, especially on a subsistence level. The natural beauty of South Africa’s coastline has also led to the development of a thriving tourism industry which contributes significantly to the economy. Many of South Africa’s first cities and towns located themselves on natural estuaries and bays which have become important ports where development and infrastructure have grown around. The coastal and marine sector is currently experiencing challenges relating to overfishing and exploitation of marine resources, as well as damage to infrastructure due to coastal storms.
Climate Change impacts on the Coastal and Marine SectorClimate change is predicted to have various impacts on South Africa’s coastal, marine and estuarine ecosystems. Specifically, changes are predicted in: sea surface temperature, storm frequency, freshwater flow and runoff patterns, ecosystem productivity, marine water oxygen levels, and wind frequency, direction and strength. A changing climate is also likely to result in declining catches (in terms of species availability and distribution) which could negatively impact on subsistence fishing communities and commercial industries. Furthermore, rising sea levels and increasing storm frequency will also have adverse effects on coastal communities and infrastructure, and negatively impact on the coastal tourism industry.
The South African Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) report notes that predicting climate change impacts for marine fisheries is challenging due to complex species distribution patterns and the effects of overfishing. The report does however highlight the following potential climate change impacts on the coastal and marine sector (This includes impacts noted in the LTAS for coastal human settlements):
Vulnerability Assessment in the Coastal and Marine Sector
Climate Change Vulnerability is assessed by identifying a set of climate change indicators or impacts and then assessing your exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to these indicators. The following sections provide a summary on how to conduct this assessment specifically for the Coastal and Marine Sector.
Step 1: Develop Climate Change IndicatorsThe first step in a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment is to develop a set of indicators. Indicators are a list of potential impacts that may take place in your area as a result of climate change. The LGCCS Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit has developed a draft range of indicators using the Long Term Adaptation Scenario Reports. The indicators have been grouped into sectors. This page deals specifically with the Coastal and Marine Sector and the list of indicators are provided in the tables below.
Step 2: Assess your Exposure to the IndicatorsThe second step of a vulnerability assessment is to determine whether a particular indicator is relevant. This is termed "Exposure". Exposure is whether or not a particular impact will take place in your area.
The table below lists various indicators and links to materials to determine whether you are potentially at risk (exposed) to the impact. This is generally a "Yes/No" question. Step 3: Assess your Sensitivity to the IndicatorsThe third step of the vulnerability assessment asks the question, "if you are exposed, how important is the potential impact?" This is termed "sensitivity" and is generally assessed by a scale (e.g 1 to 5 or High, Medium, Low). For the purpose of the LGCCS Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit the Sensitivity Questions have been graded as High, Medium, Low.The table below lists the same indicators as above but provides a column called "Sensitivity Considerations" to help assess how sensitive you are to particular impacts. Step 4: Assess your Adaptive Capacity to the IndicatorsThe forth step in the vulnerability assessment asks the question: "If there are going to be significant impacts due to climate change, do you have the systems (policy, resources, social capital) to respond to the change?". The IPCC defines Adaptive Capacity as the "ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences". For the purpose of the LGCCS Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit the Adaptive Capacity Questions have been graded as High, Medium, Low. The table below lists the same indicators as above but provides a column called "Adaptive Capacity Question" which is "Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity (policy, institutional, social and finance) to respond to the change?". Record your answers here and make a note of any of the indicators above that you scored "Low or Medium" to. Step 5: Develop Response Plans for Priority IndicatorsOnce you have completed the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity assessments, short-list the indicators that you have the following answers for:
These short-listed indicators are the indicators that you are most vulnerable to. You will now need to develop a response plan to deal with these vulnerabilities. The LGCCS Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit includes generic responses plan for each sector (here). You can use these templates as a starting point for developing your own sector response plan.
To increase resilience and develop appropriate adaptation responses, a more nuanced understanding of the challenges and options for the Coastal and Marine Sector is required, building on the insights of the existing coastal and marine plans. This understanding needs to consider the importance of associated ecological infrastructure in sustaining local economies and livelihoods as well and building resilient communities. |
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