 Agriculture Sector SummaryAgriculture contributes significantly to South Africa’s economy and plays a vital role in sustaining livelihoods and ensuring food security. Agriculture is highly dependent on local climatic conditions and increased changes in rainfall and temperature, as a result of climate change, will pose numerous risks to an already sensitive sector.
Climate Change impacts on AgricultureChanges in rainfall and temperature are predicted to have particularly severe impacts on the production of key cereal crops, and on intensive livestock practices. Changing rainfall patterns and associated drought seasons are projected to impact on water availability which is critical for the sector. Changes in climate are also projected to alter the distribution of agricultural pests and diseases which can result in huge losses for farmers. All of these impacts will affect the food security and livelihoods of South Africans, especially for rural dwellers.
The South African Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) report highlights the following potential climate change impacts on the agricultural sector:
The section below provides more detail on conducting a climate change vulnerability Assessment (VA) in the Agriculture Sector. Step 1 of the VA includes the development of indicators and more details on this step can be found here.
Step 2: Assess your Exposure to the IndicatorsThe second step of a vulnerability assessment is to determine whether a particular indicator is relevant. This is termed "Exposure". Exposure is whether or not a particular impact will take place in your area.The table below lists various indicators and links to materials to determine whether you are potentially at risk (exposed) to the impact. This is generally a "Yes/No" question. Step 3: Assess your Sensitivity to the IndicatorsThe third step of the vulnerability assessment asks the question, "if you are exposed, how important is the potential impact?" This is termed "sensitivity" and is generally assessed by a scale (e.g 1 to 5 or High, Medium, Low). For the purpose of the LGCCS Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit the Sensitivity Questions have been graded as High, Medium, Low.The table below lists the same indicators as above but provides a column called "Sensitivity Considerations" to help assess how sensitive you are to particular impacts. Step 4: Assess your Adaptive Capacity to the IndicatorsThe forth step in the vulnerability assessment asks the question: "If there are going to be significant impacts due to climate change, do you have the systems (policy, resources, social capital) to respond to the change?". The IPCC defines Adaptive Capacity as the "ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences". For the purpose of the LGCCS Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit the Adaptive Capacity Questions have been graded as High, Medium, Low.The table below lists the same indicators as above but provides a column called "Adaptive Capacity Question" which is "Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity (policy, institutional, social and finance) to respond to the change?". Record your answers here and make a note of any of the indicators above that you scored "Low or Medium" to.
Due to its importance to the economy and livelihoods, the agricultural sector should be prioritised in national climate change adaptation efforts, and policies and responses cascaded down to the municipal level.
Role of National DepartmentsThe Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) is a key role-player in ensuring that climate change vulnerabilities are identified in the agricultural sector and that guidance and resources are provided in assisting commercial and subsistence farmers to prepare for and respond to these impacts. In 2014, DAFF prepared a Climate Change Sector Plan aimed at addressing identified sector vulnerabilities to climate change, and is in the process of developing a climate change adaptation and mitigation plan for agriculture. An important role of this department is to ensure that these plans are cascaded down to the local level. These plans should then be interrogated at the local level and context appropriate responses in the agricultural sector developed. Possible role players and agricultural responses at the local level are highlighted below:Role of Councillors
Role of Municipal Administration
Role of Individuals
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