This page provides a summary of key provincial climate change issues and links to district level climate change information. Click on the links below for more information on each of the District Municipalities in the Province.
Northern Cape Workshops |
Provincial Climate Change Summary
There is a provincial climate change stakeholder forum which has gained momentum from the Vulnerability Assessment process. There is also some dedicated climate change institutional responsibility, through the provincial air quality team. The current Climate Support program has convened a number of stakeholder engagements that can be leveraged to create a more formal stakeholder forum.
Key Climate Change Response Issues
The Northern Cape is predominately rural with a strong agricultural base. The key climate change risks and vulnerabilities as listed in the Vulnerability Assessment are summarised in the table below.|
Adaptation Category |
Vulnerability Details |
|
Agriculture |
|
|
Biodiversity and Ecosystems (including marine) |
|
|
Water Sector |
|
|
Human Health |
|
|
Built Environment and Human Settlement |
|
Current Climate Change Gaps
The most immediate gap in climate change response in the Northern Cape is to translate the Vulnerability Assessment into response options and action plans. These response options then need to be integrated into the departmental sector plans.
Provincial Statistics
The Northern Cape is situated on the west coast of South Africa. The capital city of the province is Kimberly. It is neighboured by Namibia and Botswana in the north, Western Cape and Eastern Cape to the south and Free State and North West in the east. The Northern Cape is the biggest South African province, covering close to a third of the country's surface area. Despite its large size the Northern Cape has the smallest population of all the provinces with 1.146 million people (Census, 2011). This is a result of the largely arid climate of the province. The majority of the human population is located in the northern and north-eastern regions of the province, close to mining and agricultural activities which are the two main economic activities in the Northern Cape (SoE, 2014). The agriculture and mining sectors provide the highest financial inputs to the province, while the highest employment is offered by the agriculture, forestry and fishing; community and social services; wholesale and retail trade; and mining and quarrying sectors. The province has five districts (shown in Figure 1): Namakwa, ZF Mgcawu, John Taolo Gaetsewe, Frances Baard and Pixley ka Seme.
Figure 1: Map of Northern Cape Province showing its municipal boundaries.
In general the Northern Cape is a hot and dry region with a climate similar to that of desert or semi-desert areas. The average annual rainfall varies considerably across the province ranging from 50 mm and 400 mm depending on location. The west of the province experiences winter rainfall while the remaining areas of the province experience rain predominately in the summer months. In summer temperatures of more 40°C are regularly experienced across most of the province. In winter day time temperatures are mild while night time temperatures often drop below freezing. (Office of the Premier, 2012).
Localised climate change projections
A recent report on climate change model projections in the Northern Cape (EnviroTech Solutions, 2016), highlights projected changes in the following areas: average temperatures, very hot days, heat wave days, high fire danger days, average rainfall, extreme rainfall events, and, dry spell days. In the case of low mitigation efforts the following has been projected for the Northern Cape for the 2020-2050 period in relation to the baseline period of 1971-2000:- Average Temperature: Temperature increases of between 1 and 3°C with the highest increases being experienced in the north of the province.
- Hot Days (Days were the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C): Between 30 and 60 more hot days per year with the highest increase in hot days being experienced in the north of the province.
- Heat-wave Days (At least three consecutive days where the maximum temperature is 5 °C warmer than the average temperature of the hottest month): Increases in the number of heat wave days by approximately twenty per year with the largest increases occurring in the north of the province.
- High fire danger days (Days where the McArthur fire-danger index is above 24): Increases in the number of high fire danger days across the province. Increases will be highest in the north east of the province which will experience between 30 and 60 more high fire danger.
- Average Rainfall: In general decreases in rainfall are projected for the Northern Cape. However, increases are projected for the north eastern parts of the province and modelling on eastern parts of province was inconclusive and indicates that both wetter and drier conditions are possible.
- Extreme rainfall events (Events where more that 20mm of rain falls within 24hrs over 50 x 50km2): In general the modelling results show that extreme rainfall events will decrease. Under some scenarios it is possible that extreme rainfall events in the northern parts of the province will increase.
- Dry-spells (At least five consecutive days without rainfall): Increases in the number of dry spell days across the province.
Under high mitigation efforts, the projected changes are reduced but still remain significant (EnviroTech Solutions, 2016).
Agriculture and Forestry
Although agriculture only contributes approximately 6% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Northern Cape it is the second largest employer in the Province after the community and social services sector. The province has two major forms of agriculture. Crop farming takes place on only 2% of the land of the province and predominately located around the Orange River Valley and Vaalharts Irrigation Scheme. Stock and game farming dominates the land use of the province taking place on approximately 96% of the land. (Office of the Premier, 2012).
A vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) conducted for the province based on recent climate modelling also conducted by Envirotech Solutions identifies a number of climate change impacts on the crops in the province. Temperature increases are projected for across the province and the vulnerability assessment highlights that this is likely to increase the aridity of the province as well as evapotranspiration rates resulting in increased water demand by plants. The assessment also highlights that temperature changes will impact on the number of heat and chill units which will impact on grain and fruit crops and that increases in the number of heat wave and very hot days will impact on both livestock and crop yields coupled as well as contributing a possible increase in fire incidents. While the modelling largely projects decreases in rainfall for the Northern Cape there is a lack of certainty on rainfall projections (EnviroTech Solutions, 2016). However increases in temperature coupled with likely decreases in rainfall is expected to create an increased demand for irrigation in the Northern Cape (Envirotech Solutions, 2016). With regards to specific crops the vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) indicates that shifts are expected to be experienced in the areas of the province that are suitable for grapes, maize, wheat and other cereals. The assessment indicates that rooibos tea is also likely to be affected be decreases in rainfall at key points which could reduce yield by as much as 40% in drought years. In addition the climate change status quo report for the Northern Cape further notes that climate change may promote certain plant disease, change in plant cycles which in turn will require changes in the agricultural cycles, increase the need for facilities to keep harvested crop cool and increase the number of veld fires (Envirotech Solutions, 2015).
With regards to livestock it is projected that heat stress of livestock is likely to increase as a result of temperature increases (Envirotech Solutions, 2016). The implications of heat stress for livestock includes reduced feed intake resulting in reduce productivity of livestock, reduction in the carrying capacity (Envirotech Solutions, 2015). Other implications of climate change for livestock in the Northern Cape possibly include: reduction in the carrying capacity of grazing land as a result of the expansion of less productive biomes such as the desert biome, altered livestock disease patterns and increased livestock losses to cold exposure as a result of decreases in general animal conditioning because of longer and hotter summers (Envirotech Solutions, 2015).
A vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) conducted for the province based on recent climate modelling also conducted by Envirotech Solutions identifies a number of climate change impacts on the crops in the province. Temperature increases are projected for across the province and the vulnerability assessment highlights that this is likely to increase the aridity of the province as well as evapotranspiration rates resulting in increased water demand by plants. The assessment also highlights that temperature changes will impact on the number of heat and chill units which will impact on grain and fruit crops and that increases in the number of heat wave and very hot days will impact on both livestock and crop yields coupled as well as contributing a possible increase in fire incidents. While the modelling largely projects decreases in rainfall for the Northern Cape there is a lack of certainty on rainfall projections (EnviroTech Solutions, 2016). However increases in temperature coupled with likely decreases in rainfall is expected to create an increased demand for irrigation in the Northern Cape (Envirotech Solutions, 2016). With regards to specific crops the vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) indicates that shifts are expected to be experienced in the areas of the province that are suitable for grapes, maize, wheat and other cereals. The assessment indicates that rooibos tea is also likely to be affected be decreases in rainfall at key points which could reduce yield by as much as 40% in drought years. In addition the climate change status quo report for the Northern Cape further notes that climate change may promote certain plant disease, change in plant cycles which in turn will require changes in the agricultural cycles, increase the need for facilities to keep harvested crop cool and increase the number of veld fires (Envirotech Solutions, 2015).
With regards to livestock it is projected that heat stress of livestock is likely to increase as a result of temperature increases (Envirotech Solutions, 2016). The implications of heat stress for livestock includes reduced feed intake resulting in reduce productivity of livestock, reduction in the carrying capacity (Envirotech Solutions, 2015). Other implications of climate change for livestock in the Northern Cape possibly include: reduction in the carrying capacity of grazing land as a result of the expansion of less productive biomes such as the desert biome, altered livestock disease patterns and increased livestock losses to cold exposure as a result of decreases in general animal conditioning because of longer and hotter summers (Envirotech Solutions, 2015).
Biodiversity
Six of South Africa's biomes occur in the Northern Cape: Desert, Nama Karoo, Savanna, Succulent Karoo, Fynbos and Grassland (DENC, 2014). The Nama Karoo is the most significant biome in the province currently covering over 50% of the area of the province (CSIR, 2004). The 2004 state of environment report for the Northern Cape identified habitat transformation and degradation as the primary threat to biodiversity in the province (CSIR, 2004). Formal protection of biodiversity in the province is provided by a network of 12 national and provincial conservation areas which include the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park and Richtersveld National Park (CSIR, 2004).
Since biomes can be defined as "a major regional or global biotic community, such as a grassland or desert, characterized chiefly by the dominant forms of plant life and the prevailing climate" (The Free Dictionary, 2016) it is expected that changes in climate could result in changes in the range and extent of various biomes. An assessment of these potential spatial shifts at national level in South Africa have indicated that the Nama Karoo biome is the second most threatened biome after Grassland. Projections up to 2050 of shifts in biomes under a low climate risk scenario show that portions of the Nama Karoo biome will be give way to expansion of the Grassland biome to the east and the Succulent Karoo biome to the west. Under the medium risk scenario the Nama Karoo biome will also give way to expansion of the desert Biome to the north. Under the high risk scenario significant expansion in the Desert biome will take place in the Northern Cape as the expense of the Nama Karoo biome and the grassland biome. In addition under the high risk scenario the southern portions of Nama Karoo biome will expand eastwards at the expense of the grassland biome (DEA, 2013).
Since biomes can be defined as "a major regional or global biotic community, such as a grassland or desert, characterized chiefly by the dominant forms of plant life and the prevailing climate" (The Free Dictionary, 2016) it is expected that changes in climate could result in changes in the range and extent of various biomes. An assessment of these potential spatial shifts at national level in South Africa have indicated that the Nama Karoo biome is the second most threatened biome after Grassland. Projections up to 2050 of shifts in biomes under a low climate risk scenario show that portions of the Nama Karoo biome will be give way to expansion of the Grassland biome to the east and the Succulent Karoo biome to the west. Under the medium risk scenario the Nama Karoo biome will also give way to expansion of the desert Biome to the north. Under the high risk scenario significant expansion in the Desert biome will take place in the Northern Cape as the expense of the Nama Karoo biome and the grassland biome. In addition under the high risk scenario the southern portions of Nama Karoo biome will expand eastwards at the expense of the grassland biome (DEA, 2013).
Health
The Northern Cape population of 1.146 million people is youthful with the 0-14 year-old age group that accounting for 30.1% of the population (Census, 2011). The the 15-64 age group makes up 64.2 of the population and the 65 and older age group accounts for the remaining 5.7% of the population (Census, 2011). Mortality for the Northern Cape in 2013 was 13 699 deaths (StatsSA, 2014). The five leading natural causes of death in 2010 in the Northern Cape were tuberculosis HIV (8.7%),(7.7%), heart diseases (excluding hypertensive diseases) (4.6%) Cerebrovascular diseases (4.5%) and influenza and pneumonia (4.4%) (StatsSA, 2014).
A vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) conducted for the province based on recent climate modelling also conducted by Envirotech Solutions identifies a number of climate change impacts on the health in the province:
- Food Security: The vulnerability assessment highlights that the Northern Cape Province has the highest percentage of malnutrition in comparison to other South African provinces and indicates that climate change is likely to make this situation worse. The vulnerability assess indicates that increases in dry spells and flood events could disrupt access and availability of food. In addition the expected impact on the agriculture sector could also decrease food availability.
- Vector-borne Diseases: While the vulnerability assessment includes a section on vector-borne diseases it makes no conclusions on the likely impacts for the Northern Cape Province. The long term adaption scenarios Human Health Report (DEA, 2013) indicates the main vector-borne diseases are malaria, dengue fever and yellow fever which are spread by mosquitoes and Lyme disease which is spread by ticks. The human health report also that notes that the Northern Cape is one of six provinces in the county that have very low / no instances of malaria and that malaria cases in South Africa have dropped considerably since 2000.
- Extreme Weather Events: The vulnerability assessment discusses three types of extreme events: heat, droughts and floods. With regards to heat the report notes that global research indicates that extreme temperatures can result in deaths, can increase levels of pollutants in the air and can elevate levels of aeroallergens. The climate change status quo assessment for the Northern Cape (Envirotech Solutions, 2015) notes extreme temperatures aggravate the symptoms of some non-communicable diseases and in particular heat waves increase risks to vulnerable groups such as young children, the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. With regards to droughts the vulnerability assessment notes that this could impact the supply of clean, fresh water and increase risk of disease. In terms of floods the reports indicates that floods can contaminate fresh water supplies, increase risk of disease and present a physical hazard to property and people.
- Air Quality: The vulnerability assessment notes that climate change may have an impact on air quality and hence influence incidence of diseases caused by poor air quality. The report does not make any conclusions on how air quality will change in the Northern Cape.
- Vulnerable populations: The vulnerability assessment considered the vulnerability of each of the municipalities to climate change impacts adjusting for population. It concluded that only the Sol Plaatjie Municipality had high vulnerability and the //Khara Hais, Ga-Segonyana and Joe Morolong Municipality had moderate vulnerability.
- Communicable diseases: The vulnerability assessment notes that climate change will affect communicable diseases. The climate change status quo report for the Northern Cape (Envirotech Solutions, 2015) notes that increases in water temperatures could improve the conditions required for the incubation of water-borne communicable diseases and highlights cholera as an example of a disease that would be impacted by changes in rainfall and temperature.
Human Settlements
The Provincial Growth and Development Framework (Office of the Premier, 2012) notes that the Northern Cape comprises approximately 115 urban area of various sizes that are spread across the province. The 2011 Census data (Census, 2011) indicates that there are just over 300,000 households in the Northern Cape with an average household size of 3.7. The vast majority of households have formal houses (82.4%). The remainder are located in informal dwellings (13.1%) and traditional housing (3.2%).
The vulnerability assessment for the province (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) indicates that climate change in will have an impact on urban and rural settlements in the province. In particular report indicates the areas in the northern east that under certain conditions are projected to have increased flooding will experience damage to homes and infrastructure. The report also expects increased temperatures to affect construction materials such as steel and tar.
Marine and Coastal
The Northern Cape's coastline is only sparsely inhabited as a result of the scarcity of freshwater on the coast and poor soil quality. The most significant economic activities in the area are mining and fishing. The Northern Cape has significant marine diamond which complement on-shore deposits. The fishing sector is sustained by the nutrient-rich and highly productive Benguela current which supports abundant marine life of the coast (Office of the Premier, 2012). Sea level rise is an existing phenomena in South Africa and it has been estimated that on the west coast of the country sea level is rising by an average 1.87 mm per year (DEA, 2011). The main projected coastal impacts of climate change are accelerated sea level rise, increased storminess and increases in ocean temperatures.The vulnerability assessment for the province (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) highlights several marine and coastal issues related to climate change. It notes that the Benguela current system is vulnerable to the impacts associated with climate change and this could have a long term impact on the management of the resource. It also indicated that sea level rise and coastal storms will have an impact on the fisheries industry and could threaten existing coastal settlements and other coastal infrastructure in the province. The climate change status quo report (Envirotech Solutions, 2015) however notes the relative to the rest of the country the Northern Cape coastline is has a low vulnerability to coastal storms and sea level rise since it has a steep profile, is already a high intensity coastline and has limited coastal infrastructure. Nevertheless the status quo report does highlight that there are potential risks to the existing infrastructure which is demonstrated by damages caused by previous coastal storms at Port Nolloth.
Water
Water is already a significant challenge for the Northern Cape as a result of its largely arid climate. The vulnerability assessment for the province (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) indicates that the Orange River and the Vaal Rivers along with their associated tributaries are the main sources of surface water in the province. The status of the key water management areas in the province are summarised below based on information in the technical report compiled for the Provincial Growth and Development Strategy (Office of the Premier, 2011):
- The Lower Orange: This vast majority of this WMA is located in the Northern Province and it accounts for a significant component of the land in the province. This WMA has low annual rainfalls ranging from 20mm to 400mm. Evaporation rates are in the region of 3,000mm per annum which significantly exceeding rainfall. As a result it relies on water transfers from other WMAs. The WMA experiences droughts and at times flooding.
- Lower Vaal WMA: Approximately half of this WMA is located in the Province. This WMA has annual rainfalls ranging from 500mm to 100mm and the high evaporation rate of up to 2,800mm annually. The Vaalharts Irrigation scheme, the largest in the country, is located in this WMA and the vast majority of the scheme is located in the Northern Province.
- Upper Orange WMA: The majority of this WMA is located in the Free State. Annual rainfall in the WMA varies from 1,000mm to 200mm per annum. Like the WMAs discussed above potential evaporation exceeds rainfall. There a number of significant storage dams in this WMA.
- Olifants / Doorn WMA: This WMA straddles the Northern Cape and the Western Cape. The major river in the WMA is the Olifants. It has an annual rainfall in the region of 300mm per year.
- Increases in water temperatures as a result of increases in the air temperatures. This increase in water temperatures could effect irrigation water quality and create conditions the promote the incubation of water-borne diseases.
- Additional evaporation of water from dams as well as wetlands and soils as a result of increases in air temperatures. This could increase salt concentration and reduce water availability.
- Since groundwater decreases under drought condition it is expected that climate change will contribute to a reduction in the amount of ground water. The vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2016) notes that a significant portion of Northern Cape residents are dependent on groundwater.
A large proportion of water in the Northern Cape also comes from groundwater, Groundwater levels have been demonstrated to drop significantly during drought periods and this can be expected to be exacerbated by climate change. Increasing the number of boreholes and levels of abstraction of groundwater is unlikely to be a sound adaptation measure and adaptation must focus on water conservation, demand management, and recycling. Artificial recharge is a groundwater management technique that may play an increasing role in maintaining South Africa’s water security. Artificial recharge is the transfer of surplus surface water underground by injecting it into aquifers through boreholes. The advantages include lower evaporation losses, which will become especially critical as higher temperatures increase evaporation of stored surface water.
- Lower Orange WMA: Projections of increased temperatures in this WMA are expected to cause already dry areas of this WMA to lose more water.
- Lower Vaal WMA: Current projections for this WMA indicate rainfall is likely to remain unchanged or in fact increase and temperatures will increase but less severely than increases expected for the Lower Orange. The vulnerability assessment concludes that flooding is likely to be experienced in this WMA and that there is a need to develop a better understanding of climate impacts.
- Upper Orange WMA: The vulnerability assessment indicates that no extensive studies on climate change have been done for the Upper Orange, but that there appear to be no major climate change related risks.
Policy and Institutional Environment
Policies and Strategies
Currently there is no adopted climate change policy for the Northern Cape Province. A Northern Cape Climate Change Response Strategy and Adaptation Plan is in the process of development. The Northern Cape Department of Environment and Nature Conservation notes in its 2014 annual report (DENC, 2014) that it hopes to complete the report with funding support from the National Department of Environmental Affairs.Structures
The Northern Cape Department of Environment and Nature Conservation is the lead climate change department for the Northern Cape. The Air Quality Management Unit was allocated responsibility for climate change as of August 2015. Currently there are three staff from the Air Quality Unit that work on climate change. Climate change efforts are coordinated through the following Climate Change structures:
- Climate Change forum: This forum meets quarterly and brings together provincial stakeholders. It is a technical committee that is attended by government officials and other stakeholders.
- Climate Change Council: This forum also meets quarterly and it brings together Members of the Executive Council whose departments work on aspects of climate change.
The following provincial departments were identified by Envirotech Solutions (2015) in their Current Climate Change Status Quo for the Northern Cape Province province as relevant to climate change in the province:
1. Environment and Nature Conservation
2. Water and Sanitation
3. Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development
4. Cooperative Governance, Human Settlement and Traditional Affairs
5. Energy
6. Health
7. Roads and public works
8. Education
9. Social Development
10. Sports, Arts and Culture
11. Transport, Safety and Liaison
12. Treasury
Communication of climate change information
At a recent workshop with provincial stakeholders, it was indicated by officials that the National Department of Environmental Affairs communicates regularly and shares climate change information well. However, the officials felt that because of lack of capacity the dissemination of this information to the rest of the stakeholders in the province does not always take place.
Climate Change Budget and Finance
The Northern Cape's Department of Environment and Nature Conservation's Annual Performance Plan for 2015/16 indicates that climate change management is currently an unfunded mandate (DENC, 2014). GIZ has funding the development of several climate change research reports for the Northern Cape namely Climate Change Model Projections, Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Status Quo.
At a recent workshop with provincial stakeholders on 3 June 2016, stakeholders felt that there was not sufficient capacity in the Northern Cape to apply for funding opportunities. Concern was expressed that funding tends to go to NGOs despite the lack of funding for dedicated climate change capacity in the province. It was felt that it would be more appropriate to channel the funding to Northern Cape Department of Nature Conservation to provide it with sufficient resources to hire staff and to have an operational budget for work on climate change.
