North West Workshops |
Provincial Climate Change Summary
There appears to be limited mainstreaming of climate change issues in departmental sector plan, although the Adaptation Strategy does provide a level of detail that can be incorporated into key sector plans in the future.
Outside existing disaster risk management structures, there are no forums or structures to coordinate climate change response in the province, however there has been and continues to be stakeholder workshops through the drafting of the Adaptation Strategy.
Key Climate Change Response Issues
The North West is a land-locked predominantly rural province with a strong mining and agricultural sector. The key climate change adaptation issues therefore relate to water and agricultural issues. These are summarised in the table below from the Adaptation Strategies for North West Province
Adaptation Category |
Adaptation Responses |
Agriculture |
|
Rural Livelihoods and Settlements |
|
Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems |
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Water Resources (Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Supply) |
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Extractives |
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Disaster Management |
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The North West Province is made up of four municipalities as shown in the Figure 1 below: Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati, Ngaka Modiri Molema, Bojanala Platinum, and Dr Kenneth Kaunda. Based on the 2011 Census, the North West's total population is 3,509,953, with 65% of the population is accommodated in rural areas. The climate in the province varies considerably with the areas in the east being much wetter than those in the west. The province is dominated by a flat savanna and grassland landscape, which is home to rich biodiversity and agriculture, with hills and ridges dividing up this landscape. Some of the more iconic of these include the Magaliesberg and Pilanesberg ridges, and the Vredefort Dome. The Kalahari Desert lies to the west of the province (North West Provincial Department: Department, Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development, 2015).
Climate Science
Localised climate change projections
According to the North West's Environmental Outlook Report of 2013 (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2014), the North West Province has not experienced the warming that global circulation models have predicted for South Africa thus far. However, the report does highlight a set of possible 'worst case scenario' effects for North West if the projections hold true. These include the province experiencing increases in annual average temperatures of up to 8°C by the end of the century, and drier conditions towards the west of the province. Under a less extreme case scenario, the drier conditions will be less extreme and the temperature increases will be in the region of less than 4 degrees by the end of the century.Data from the national Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) project, states that the North West is likely to experience increases in temperatures of 2.5°C by 2035, 1 -3°C between 2040 and 2060 (high end scenarios indicate 2-5°C), and by 3-6.5°C between 2080 and 2100 (high end scenarios indicate 5-8°C) (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). Rainfall projections are less certain, with some climate models predicting decreases in rainfall and others predicting moderate increases in rainfall. What is certain is that the variability of rainfall will increase and that due to temperature increases evaporation rates are likely to increase resulting in a drier future (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015).
Results of a vulnerability assessment conducted for the province highlight the following sectors as displaying greater vulnerability to climate change: agriculture, ecosystems (terrestrial and aquatic), rural livelihoods, and the mining sector (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). The table below, taken from the vulnerability assessment report, summarises the findings of this assessment.
Table 1: Vulnerability assessment summary (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015)
|
Sensitivity |
Exposure |
Risk |
Adaptive Capacity |
Vulnerability |
||||
|
|
Short Term |
Long Term |
Short Term |
Long Term |
Short Term |
Long Term |
Short Term |
Long Term |
Terrestrial |
Med |
Med |
High |
Med |
High |
Low |
Med |
Med |
High |
Aquatic |
High |
Med |
High |
High |
High |
Med |
Med |
Med |
High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rural |
High |
Med |
Med |
Med |
High |
Med |
Low |
Med |
High |
Urban |
Med |
Low |
Med |
Low |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Low |
Med |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture and Farming |
High |
Med |
High |
Med |
High |
Med |
Med |
Med |
High |
Mining |
Med (indirect) |
Med (Indirect) |
Med (Indirect) |
Med (Indirect) |
High (Indirect) |
Low |
Med |
Med (Indirect) |
High (Indirect) |
Tourism |
High |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Water Supply |
High |
Med |
High |
Med |
High |
Low |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Energy Supply |
Med |
Low |
Med |
Low |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Transport |
Low |
Low |
Med |
Low |
Low |
Low |
Med |
Med |
Med |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public Health and Safety |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Low |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Extreme Weather / Disaster |
High |
Med |
High |
Med |
High |
Med |
Med |
Med |
Med |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture
Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns in the province have the potential to negatively impact both subsistence and commercial farmers and threaten both food production and access. Subsistence farmers that depend on certain climatic conditions to grow their crops will be unable to do so effectively making them more vulnerable. Increases in temperatures will result in the need for commercial farmers to increase their irrigation or production of fodder, which will place further pressure on already over capacitated water systems. Changes in temperature and rainfall will result in changes in the suitability of certain areas for specific crops or livestock farming. Maize farming, for example will become less suitable in the western areas and more suitable in the eastern parts of the province. Sorghum production could also improve in the eastern regions of the province. However, with continued changes in climate it is predicted that the land suitability for sorghum will be reduced substantially by the end of the century. If rainfall increases in the province, the land may become more suitable for sugar cane by the end of the century (North West Department of Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development, 2014). At a national level, the province produces a high percentage of South Africa's maize (18%), a crop which is highly sensitive to rainfall changes. Changes in rainfall may therefore have detrimental impacts on maize production in the country impacting on food security for the country as a whole (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). The province also plays a major role in the production of sunflower seed, cattle ranching and game farming at a national level which are predicted to be negatively impacted by changes in climate (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015).
Strategy |
Description |
Responsibilities |
Time frame |
Potential sources of funding |
Allocate funding and resources to develop a climate change adaptation plan for the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector in the North West (starting with agriculture at a minimum) |
This strategy involves the development of a detailed climate change adaptation plan for the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector that identifies locally relevant adaptation responses. |
Lead implementer: READ. Implemented in coordination with DEA, DAFF, and DWS at the national level, SANBI, the Red Meat Producers Association, and, North West University |
One year |
National treasury, the Land Bank |
Develop and implement sub-plans for each of the sectors - agronomy, horticulture, monogastric animals (poultry and swine), and ruminants (cattle). |
Sub-plans for agronomy, horticulture, monogastric animals (poultry and swine), and ruminants (cattle) should be developed and include both research and applied components in order to assist farmers practically in responding to climate change in these sectors. |
Lead implementer: READ. Application in collaboration with: DAFF, DWS, NWU, the Red Meat Producers Association, and other relevant entities.
|
Sub-plans developed in one year. Implementation ongoing |
National treasury, the Land Bank |
Ecosystems
The North West's terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, with grasslands being particularly vulnerable. Currently the province's western sandy Highveld grassland ecosystem is classified as critically endangered, its Vaal- Vet sandy grassland endangered, and eight other ecosystems classified as vulnerable (Department of EnvironmentalAffairs,2015). By 2050 it is projected that the savanna biome will experience a dramatic expansion replacing a large percentage of the grassland biome in the province. This change in landscape will have a detrimental impact on grassland species, with some going extinct and others experiencing a reduction in distribution ranges, whilst the savanna species are expected to expand their distributional ranges into the former grassland areas. Other impacts from the changes in biome conditions include changes to hydrological cycles. In addition an expansion of the savanna biome may make more areas suitable for game farming (North West Department of Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development, 2014).
Strategy |
Description |
Responsibilities |
Time frame |
Potential sources of funding |
Develop communications and carry out a sustained training and awareness campaign regarding the province’s ecosystems and vulnerabilities |
Public communication and awareness materials should be developed that provide information on ecosystems and climate change and highlight the importance of certain environment-themed days.
|
The Department of Education, SANBI and Department of Health. |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort |
Not identified |
Implement SPLUMA to internalize climate change issues into land use planning |
SPLUMA should be implemented in the North West province, taking the impact on the environment and climate change aspects into account in all future land use decisions. |
Local municipalities. |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort |
Not identified |
Develop a specialized climate change management programme to focus on identification and protection of the North West’s main terrestrial ecosystems in the face of climate change |
North West to establish a programme, in partnership with the South African National Biodiversity Institute and other provinces, that strengthens the understanding of the effects of climate change on the savanna and grassland ecosystems. This could result in the establishment of new protected areas and conservation programmes. |
Lead implementers: DEA and the provincial counterparts at READ. Assisted by DAFF, SANBI and other provinces. |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort |
DEA or provincial on an annual basis |
Strengthen forums for cooperative governance and improve implementation of existing efforts |
Forums for cooperative governance where decisions are made regarding land-use should be established and strengthened. Resources should also be allocates to the implementation of existing plans and programmes that build resilience of ecosystems. |
Collective responsibility |
Ongoing |
|
Rural Livelihoods and Settlements
Strategy |
Description |
Responsibilities |
Time frame |
Potential sources of funding |
Devote resources to identifying and providing training on alternate sources of livelihood for different regions and communities within the North West. |
An applied research programme is developed that investigates alternative livelihoods for North West rural communities. Once suitable alternatives have been identified, a training and skills building programme should be implemented to assist rural communities to make the transition. |
Lead implementer: READ FEED, DAFF and the Department of Social Development involved in design and implementation
|
Programme structure and design completed within one year. Skills building to start within 2-3 years |
Not identified |
Create and strengthen business development mechanisms for smallholder farmers |
This strategy involves providing support to rural communities through loans, grants, and access to markets and resources, to respond to new opportunities in the agricultural sector.
|
Lead implementers: The Department of Economic Development at the national level and READ at the provincial level. DTI, FEED, and DAFF should also be involved. |
Programme to be developed within one year and implemented on an ongoing basis thereafter |
DAFF and the Department of Small Business Development. |
Redouble efforts to improve overall socio-economic security and wellbeing, especially in high vulnerability municipal wards. |
Improve the adaptive capacity of rural communities through the provision of good basic services and integrate climate change into existing policies.
|
Lead implementer: Department of Human Settlements.Assisted by: DHS, FEED, Social Development, Department of Health and SALGA. |
Ongoing |
Not identified |
Strategy |
Description |
Responsibilities |
Time frame |
Potential sources of funding |
Establish a long-term climate change and health programme for the mining sector in the province |
Government should work with the mining industry and unions to assess and prepare for increasing temperatures and the associated health risks in the mining industry by developing a long term programme.
|
Lead implementing entity: The Department of Mineral Resources (DMR). Operationalisation in coordination with the Department of Labor (DoL), Department of Health (DoH), mining companies, the Chamber of Mines, and mine worker unions.
Final implementation will be the responsibility of individual mines. |
Strategy to be operationalized within a year. Continuous implementation thereafter. |
DMR, and mining companies’ Corporate Social Responsibility budgets. |
Organize an annual conference or symposium in the province focused on the mining industry’s response to climate change |
A conference focusing on the impacts of climate change in the mining industry and approaches to adaptation and risk reduction in the industry should be held annually or biannually.
|
Lead implementing entity: The Department of Mineral Resources (DMR).
Operationalisation in coordination with the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), mining companies, and the Chamber of Mines.
If conducted at a Provincial level the lead entity should be the North West Climate Change Office. |
Strategy to be operationalized within a year. Continuous implementation thereafter as an annual event. |
DMR, and mining companies’ Corporate Social Responsibility budgets. |
Fund a province-specific assessment of water related climate change risk to the mining industry in the North West |
A comprehensive climate change risk assessment focused on water, in relation to the mining industry in the province should be conducted.
Improved knowledge of risks will enable the industry and policymakers to develop tailor made adaptation actions. |
The Department of Water and Sanitation would be an appropriate lead entity for this strategy, in close collaboration with DMR as well as DEA, and the mining companies. At the provincial level, READ and other relevant local entities would drive the strategy implementation. |
The assessment to be initiated within a year. Results to be finalised within the second year. |
DWS or READ. |
Water Resources
Climate change projections in the province indicate that an increase in temperatures will be experienced and in the western regions of the province rainfall is expected to decrease, but will occur more infrequently and with greater intensity. These factors will impact on water resource quality and availability, timing of high and low flows, an increase of water-borne diseases, a concentration of salts and nutrients in water and soil, an increase in the risk of flooding, increase in drought incidences, and impact on aquatic species. Increases in drought will have significant consequences on water supply in the North West and there are no new sources of water that can be used (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2014, Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). A vulnerability assessment for the province identifies water availability as the "primary channel through which climate change is impacting the province" and identifies agriculture, livestock rearing and mining as being particularly vulnerable to the projected changes in water availability (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). The strategies highlighted in the province's adaptation strategy focus on water conservation, improving water quality, and governance issues (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015).
The North West Climate Change Adaption Strategy identifies the following strategies and responses to deal with the risk in Water Resources:
Strategy |
Description |
Responsibilities |
Time frame |
Potential sources of funding |
Establish a water resource conservation programme to recommend and implement evidence-based measures for resource protection |
A dedicated programme should be established to understand the impacts of climate change on dolomitic aquifers, wetlands, and pans in the province.
|
Lead implementer: DWS, working with Catchment Management Authorities, local municipalities, SALGA, water user associations, and all relevant national departments (such as DEA, DAFF, DMR etc.). |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort
|
DWS and DEA, and scaling up of existing funding for programs like Working for Water and Working for Wetlands |
Enhance the use of Water Conservation and Demand Management measures |
Water conservation and demand side management should be prioritised in the province. Incentives for adopting more efficient practices such as rainwater harvesting and re-use of grey water should be implemented. Maintenance of water infrastructure should also be prioritised. |
Lead implementer: DWS, working with Catchment Management Authorities, local municipalities, SALGA, water user associations, and all relevant national departments (such as DEA, DAFF, DMR etc.). |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort |
DWS and DEA, and scaling up of existing funding for programs like Working for Water and Working for Wetlands |
Improve Water Quality Management |
Water quality should be made a priority and policy and enforcement improved around pollution of water resources.
|
Lead implementer: DWS, working with Catchment Management Authorities, local municipalities, SALGA, water user associations, and all relevant national departments (such as DEA, DAFF, DMR etc.). |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort |
DWS and DEA, and scaling up of existing funding for programs like Working for Water and Working for Wetlands |
Strengthen inter-departmental coordination |
An inter-office coordination forum on water management and conservation should be established, and it should integrate climate change.
|
Lead implementer: DWS, working with Catchment Management Authorities, local municipalities, SALGA, water user associations, and all relevant national departments (such as DEA, DAFF, DMR etc.). |
Strategy to be implemented within one year, and then be an ongoing effort |
DWS and DEA, and scaling up of existing funding for programs like Working for Water and Working for Wetlands |
Disaster Management
Strategy |
Description |
Responsibilities |
Time frame |
Potential sources of funding |
Include climate change issues into institutions that are already dealing with disasters |
A Disaster Management Advisory Forum at the province-level has already been established. It is advised that the Advisory Forum integrate climate change issues and include climate change as a standing agenda item. |
All departments are responsible for including issues of climate change into their own plans.
|
Within a year |
Departments should seek increases in their budgets to allow for better disaster management and planning, with the inclusion of climate change as a criterion. Additional funding could be sought from the Disaster Management Center |
Incorporate issues of climate change into municipal disaster management plans |
Municipalities are required to incorporate climate change into their own individual disaster management plans
|
All departments are responsible for including issues of climate change into their own plans.
|
Within a year |
Departments should seek increases in their budgets to allow for better disaster management and planning, with the inclusion of climate change as a criterion. Additional funding could be sought from the Disaster Management Center |
Develop sector-specific disaster management plans, incorporating climate change |
Each key sector within the province needs to develop its own disaster management plan. These plans should also integrate climate change considerations. |
All departments are responsible for including issues of climate change into their own plans.
|
Within a year |
Departments should seek increases in their budgets to allow for better disaster management and planning, with the inclusion of climate change as a criterion. Additional funding could be sought from the Disaster Management Center |
Policy and Institutional Environment
Policies and Strategies
At the end of 2015 a draft report documenting adaptation strategies for North West was compiled- Climate Support Programme (CSP) – Climate Change Adaptation Strategies: Adaptation Strategies for North West Province (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). The strategies developed are in response to identified key sectors that exhibit high climate change vulnerability or are critical for the province's economic growth. The report recommends that the proposed strategies are further developed by relevant sectors in the North West and mainstreamed into provincial policy.The North West's Environmental Outlook Report of 2013 identifies climate change as a 'potential tipping point'. The report highlights that efforts needs to be made in preparing for the impacts of climate change and developing associated interventions. A key concern highlighted is water availability which is predicted to be exacerbated with a change in climate. The province is experiencing a water deficit and further reductions in rainfall are predicted to have severe impacts on the agricultural sector especially, which could threaten food security in the province (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2014). Furthermore the North West's Provincial Department of Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development 2015-2020 Strategic Plan (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2015) identifies the development and implementation of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation response in the province as one of its 12 policy imperatives for the period, and targets the development of a climate change response strategy for the province. It also highlights climate change as one of its eleven strategic Outcome Oriented Goals (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2015). However, a lack of a dedicated budget for climate change and a lack of a specialised unit for climate change are highlighted as barriers to achieving climate related targets. A risk management plan highlighted in the strategic plan identifies a "Lack of integrated planning of climate change aspects into Provincial and Local plans" as a key risk to fulfilling targets set. (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2015).
The North West Environmental Implementation Plan 2015-2020 mentions that there is a North West Climate Change Response Strategy that is in process and expected for completion in 2015 (North West Provincial Department: Department, Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development, 2015). One of the strategic objectives highlighted in the North West's Provincial Department of Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development 2015-2020 Strategic Plan is that the department coordinates provincial climate change responses and initiatives and develops climate change response tools, under its environmental services programme (North West Department of Rural,Environment and Agricultural Development, 2015).
Structures
The North West Department of Rural, Environment and Agricultural Development (READ) is the lead department that coordinates climate change for North West Province. According to information provided by provincial stakeholders at a workshop on the 22 June 2016, there is no specific climate change department/unit in the province, and climate change adaptation is currently added on to two staff members’ responsibilities who focus on environmental policy and planning. These two staff members mostly play a coordination role in relation to climate change in the province. The Air Quality Unit under READ is focused on emissions and does not have any climate change related roles and responsibilities allocated. The Agriculture Unit within READ focuses on Early Warning Systems relating to climate change. A climate change support unit is however being proposed that will address both mitigation and adaptation and will be composed of two staff members.There is currently no provincial climate change forum that is running but there is a Provincial Disaster Management Forum that meets quarterly. The provincial disaster management advisory forum is mentioned in the North West Province's Adaptation Strategy, and recommendations made that climate change issues should be incorporated into this forum (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2015). However, provincial stakeholders at the workshop on the 22 June 2016 advocated for a climate change specific forum to be initiated. Reasons for this include:
- The Disaster Management Forum meeting agendas are always full and therefore climate change does not get the attention required.
- A climate change specific forum is required to focus on climate change issues.
- A climate change forum will allow for the inclusion of non-governmental participants, including NGOS and the private sector.
- The climate change forum should have representation from all provincial government sectors.