A climate change status quo report, modelling projections and vulnerability assessment are currently being completed for the Free State through the Climate Support Program. The State of Environment report also covers climate change issues. These reports provide an overview of the key climate change issues in the province. However, response options and strategies for the province have not yet been developed.

A climate change forum is in the process of being established, but is not yet fully operational. The province is also supporting local municipalities to integrate climate change issues into their IDPs. There is also a strong drive to develop the capacity to respond to extreme weather events through effective disaster and risk reduction management structures.

Key Climate Change Response Issues

The province has yet to develop response options to climate change, however, there is some clear indication of the key climate change adaptation issues, which are summarised in the table below.

The climate change policy environment for the Free State needs to be consolidated into clear adaptation responses outlined in a provincial climate change strategy. There is also a need for provincial sector specific research, specifically regarding social aspects of climate change and potential impacts on biodiversity.

There is also a need for a clear institutional structure to drive climate change response and access financing in the province. An Environmental Management Forum is currently in the process of being set up that will include climate change and cross-cutting environmental issues as part of its mandate.

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Provincial Statistics

The Free State Province is the third largest province in South Africa, covering an area of 129,480km2. The province is made up of one metropolitan municipality, Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality (which includes the city of Bloemfontein, the main economic centre in the province), and four district municipalities: Fezile Dabi District, Lejweleputswa District, Thabo Mofutsanyana District and Xhariep District as shown in Figure 1 below (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014).

According to the 2011Census, the Free State has the second lowest population in the country with a total population of 2,745,590. The population growth rate in the province is also lower than the national average. The province is however experiencing fast rates of rural to urban migration within the province with the percentage of people living in urban centers increasing from 70% in 2001 to over 76% in 2012 (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014; Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).


The province's economy is based on mining and agriculture, however, these sectors have both been in decline since the 1990s, and the Free State is characterised with low rates of economic growth. Overall, the province contributes a total of R65 billion to the country's GDP (4.7% of the total GDP). Unemployment is higher than the national average and was recorded at 32.6% in 2011. Poverty levels in the province are high with the average household income lower than the national average. High levels of HIV/AIDS infection is increasing economic burdens on families and on the state (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014). 

 

The province is dominated by the grassland biome and its topography consists of escarpments, undulating terrains, plains and pans. Rainfall in the province is influenced by the topography with the eastern highlands receiving more rainfall (1224mm per annum) than the undulating terrain in the west (290mm per annum) (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014).

Climate Science

Localised climate change projections

Climate models conducted at a national level highlights impacts of a doubling in carbon dioxide concentrations in the central areas of South Africa, which includes the Free State (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008:

Agriculture 

The Free State is known as the "bread basket" of South Africa, with 90% of its land area used for agriculture. Approximately 57% of the land area is used for livestock farming, including beef, dairy and sheep farming, whilst 33% is used for crop farming, including maize, wheat, sorghum, potatoes, groundnuts and sunflowers. The province produces 45% of South Africa's sunflower crop, 34% of the total maize crop, 37% of wheat, 53% of sorghum, 33% of potatoes, and 90% of cherries (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008, Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014).


The agricultural sector is predicted to experience the most adverse climate change impacts due to the sector's dependency on the province's natural elements. Changes in rainfall and temperature may result in certain crops no longer being viable and the need for increased irrigation. A study highlighted in the 2008 Free State State of Environment Report, summarises feedback received from farmers in the province on climate change and it's impacts on the sector. The study revealed that 75% of the respondents had noticed long term climatic changes in the province, with conditions becoming windy, dusty, drier and hotter. These respondents also recognised an increase in temperatures and decreases in the volume of rainfall, as well as an increase in the occurrence of drought. The respondents also noted that the timing of rainfall every year has also shifted resulting in planting being delayed. The study predicted that changes in climate will negatively impact on crop net revenues, however adaptation can play a role in reducing this impact by changing the variety of crops and livestock and increasing irrigation (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).


A vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2015) conducted for the province based on recent climate modelling identifies a number of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector in the province. Predicted temperature increases will result in high evaporation and evapotranspiration rates, increasing water demand for plants. The projected increase in the number of heat waves and very hot days will negatively impact on livestock, particularly in the west, also result in the increase of veld fires. The increases in temperature and unpredictability of future rainfall conditions will result in increased demand for irrigation. These conditions will negatively impact on maize, wheat and barley production in the long term. In terms of sorghum production, it is predicted that more areas in the Free State will become viable for this crop. In terms of fruit production, some fruit have strict chilling requirements which will be hampered by increases in temperatures. Apple production for example is expected to decrease due to the strict chilling requirements, whereas pear production does not require the same chilling requirements and is expected to adapt to the changing conditions (Envirotech Solutions, 2015). It is also predicted that there will be an increase in pests and diseases as the ecological balance is disturbed by climate change, which potentially could destroy crops (Envirotech Solutions, 2015). In terms of livestock farming, increases in temperature are expected to negatively impact directly and indirectly on livestock numbers. In warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall, grazing space will be reduced. Furthermore in warmer conditions animals are more subject to sweating which results in higher water intake, and animals can die of thirst due to insufficient water availability. An increase in alien species due to changes in climate also negatively impacts on grazing land reducing the amount of feed supply (Envirotech, 2015). In recent months the Free State has experienced drought which has negatively impacted crop production and has killed livestock. This has negatively impacted the finances of farms and has impacted on the gross agricultural production in the province.


The province's green economy strategy highlights that there is a need for the agricultural sector to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and water resources and make a shift to "green agriculture" in the province. Some of the green agriculture areas suggested in the strategy include: enhancing plant productivity through intercropping; investment in research and development and agribusinesses; strengthening the supply chains for green products and farm inputs, farm mechanisation and improving soil and water management, and diversifying crops and livestock. The strategy also suggests a shift from providing subsidies to farmers for producing crops to incentivising farmers to adopt green agricultural practices (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014).

Water

The Orange and the Vaal River and their tributaries, catchments, wetlands and dams provide surface water in the province (Envirotech Solutions, 2015). Through the construction of several large dams and the development of transfer schemes that import water from other areas, including Lesotho, the province has been able to supply the large quantities of water required for agriculture. Groundwater is used in areas where surface water supply is inadequate or where bulk provision is financially unfeasible. The 2008 State of Environment Report states that any increase in demand for water services would require the development of new transfer schemes to import water from outside the province (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).


The province is currently experiencing severe water shortages due to drought and was declared a disaster area in October / November 2015 (EnviroTech Solutions, 2015), which is impacting on the availability of drinking water and the availability of water for large and small scale agriculture.


Water quality is also of concern in the province, where mining, agriculture and sewage management failure has negatively impacted on water quality. Mining activities have resulted in high salinity pollution, poor agricultural practices have resulted in elevated salinity and nutrient pollution, and overloading and poor maintenance of municipal sewage treatment works has resulted in poor quality effluent being discharged into river systems (See graph below). This has resulted in a deterioration in river and wetland health which has impacted on the services that these systems provide and the biodiversity they support (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).

 

• Upper Vaal WMA: 32 million m3 per annum 
• Middle Vaal WMA: 54 million m3 per annum 
• Lower Vaal WMA: 126 million m3 per annum 
• Upper Orange WMA: 65 million m3 per annum As precipitation is the main source of ground water, groundwater recharge and discharge is predicted to be affected by changes in rainfall and temperature (EnviroTech, 2015). 

Climate change projections for the province indicate increases in temperatures and a reduction in the amount of rainfall which will reduce the availability of surface and ground water in the province. This will impact negatively on the agricultural sector and will result in an increase in the costs of meeting water demand by municipalities for consumers. The Free State's State of Environment Report highlights three adaptation strategies to meet water demand in the future: Increasing water supply through the construction of dams, modifying catchment vegetation and desalinating groundwater; Reducing water demand through demand side management and the re-use and recycling of water; and, managing demand and supply in different ways such as through crop substitution. The report also adds that the relationship between water availability and climate change requires further research and understanding so that planning processes take these potential impacts into account (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).

The province's green economy strategy identifies the following interventions to ensure adequate water supply: Investing in water efficiency programmes; investing in biodiversity and ecosystem services; investing in small local water supply systems for communities; investing in good sanitation and drinking water projects; and, improving institutional capacity to improve water management (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014.

The following four biomes occur in the Free State: Grassland (72% of the province), Nama Karoo (22%), savanna (5.95%) and forest (0.05%). The province has however experienced biodiversity loss due to the impacts of farming, mining and urban development activities. Approximately 60% of the grassland biome in the province has been irreversibly transformed. Presently protected areas make up only 3.4% of the Free State's land area, which includes national reserves, provincial reserves, local reserves, private nature reserves and reserves under the ownership of the South African National Defense Force. The majority of the provincial nature reserves are located around state owned dams as historically this land was set aside as a precautionary action against possible flooding. Therefore the majority of the existing reserves were not selected for their biodiversity value and are fragmented across the province. The Seekoeivlei Nature Reserve is the only reserve that was established in the province to specifically protect wetlands. 1.76 % of the province is protected under private ownership where landowners have agreed to have their properties declared as nature reserves. There is also concern around exotic fish species in the rivers, loss of genetic integrity of endemic species in private game reserves, and alien bird species that are competing with indigenous species (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).

Many of the Free State's rivers flow intermittently during the dry season and experience most runoff during the summer months. Because of the flat gradient of the province there is a high occurrence of natural pools and pans. The latest State of Environment report states that the overall health assessment of rivers in the Free State is fair to poor which negatively impacts on the functioning of rivers and their ecosystems. A range of different wetland types are found in the province covering approximately 1.7% of the province's land area. At this stage the condition or status of these wetlands has not been documented (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).

The Free State's State of Environment report indicates that with the projected changes in climate, it is expected that there will be an increase in the prevalence of alien plant species in the province. Furthermore, increased levels of carbon in the atmosphere, and a reduced occurrence of frost in the province is expected to encourage tree growth which could result in the expansion of the savanna biome into the already threatened grassland biome. (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008). A vulnerability assessment (Envirotech Solutions, 2015) conducted for the province identifies a number of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the province under high and low risk climate scenarios. The grassland biome is the one of the most threatened biomes in the country, under all climate scenarios. The 'bioclimatic envelope' for grasslands will be significantly reduced and is most likely to be overtaken by savanna and forest vegetation. The Nama-Karoo is the second most threatened biome in the province and is most likely to be replaced by savanna and desert. The implications of these losses will impact on livelihoods and economic sectors that are dependent on the ecosystem services provided by these biomes.

Health

85% of the Free State's population does not have access to private medical aid and rely on the state for health care services. Prevalence of infectious diseases such as gastro enteritis, tuberculosis, pneumonia and HIV/AIDS are high and exacerbated by poor socio-economic conditions in the Province. 68% of deaths in the Free State are related to tuberculosis, pneumonia and HIV/AIDS. The number of maternal deaths in the province, impacted by HIV/AIDS, has increased from 97 deaths per 100,000 live births in the year 2000, to 372.2 in 2006. Infant mortality cases of children below one year are high at 62 per 1,000, and are related to poor socio-economic conditions. Children without access to services such as clean water and sanitation for example are more likely to get infectious diseases such as diarrhea. The main causes of death in children are HIV/AIDS, low birth weight, diarrhea, lower respiratory infections and malnutrition (Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).

Climate change is expected to increase the number of cases of malnutrition as increased flood events and dry spells will impact on food availability. Climate change is also expected to affect communicable and non-communicable diseases, such as cholera and diarrhea. Changes in temperature and precipitation directly affect vector borne diseases which may therefore increase in the province, this is however not conclusive. Extreme high temperatures will particularly impact on the elderly and contribute to cardiovascular and respiratory disease related deaths. Increased cases of drought will impact on the availability of quality water which may lead to increased cases of diarrhea. Increases in flood events may lead to the contamination of water and increase in water and vector borne disease. Climate change may also have an impact on air quality leading to respiratory infections and TB (Envirotech Solutions, 2015). 

Human Settlements

Free State is experiencing fast rates of rural to urban migration with the percentage of people living in urban centers increasing from 70% in 2001 to over 76% in 2012. People are migrating from commercial farms, mines and former homelands to access better economic opportunities in the urban areas. This is resulting in significant pressure being placed on the urban environment's resources and an increase in pollution and waste generation. Existing infrastructure has not been able to cope with the increases in demand which has resulted in failure of systems such as waste water treatment plants. In addition there has been rapid growth in informal settlements in the urban areas as the existing urban areas cannot accommodate an increase in population resulting in further pollution and land degradation. 73.6% of households are formal dwellings, 13.7% are informal dwellings, and 6% are traditional houses (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014; Free State Department of Tourism, Environmental and Economic Affairs, 2008).


The province's state of environment report highlights the following trends in migration in the province:

Disaster Management

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the Free State. The province's status quo report highlights that the province is preparing itself for disasters through the development of a disaster management plan and early warning systems. The province has also established partnerships with research institutes in the province in this field (EnviroTech, 2015).

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Policy and Institutional Environment

Policies and Strategies

A climate change adaptation strategy is currently being developed for the Free State (EnviroTech, 2015), with a draft Status Quo Report and draft Vulnerability Assessment completed. The province is also currently in a process of integrating climate change into municipal integrated development plans through the 'Lets Respond Toolkit' (EnviroTech, 2015). The Free State has also developed a Green Economy Strategy (Free State Province: Department of Economic Development, Tourism, and Environmental Affairs, 2014). 

The Free State Department of Economic, Small Business Development, Tourism and Environmental Affairs (DESTEA) is the lead climate change department for the Free State Province and has three staff who have climate change (both adaptation and mitigation) included in their portfolios. According to a recent climate change workshop with provincial stakeholders on 7 June 2016, DESTEA is in the process of establishing structures that will co-ordinate climate change efforts in the province. The key structure to take on this responsibility will be the Free State Environmental Management Forum that is currently in the process of being set up. This forum will include climate change and cross cutting environmental issues as part of its mandate. 

Currently, most climate change issues are currently dealt with through the Provincial Disaster Management Advisory Forum (DMAF) that meets quarterly. Currently the DMAF doesn’t have a specific agenda item regarding climate change, but climate change is implicit in many of the issues discussed at the forum (such as the current drought). There is a wide representation of departments at the forum including Transport, Eskom, Water, Agriculture and tertiary institutions.


At the climate change workshop on the 7 June 2016, it was highlighted that there is a need for dedicated staff to deal specifically with climate change within the lead department (DESTEA) but also within sector departments such as Water, Agriculture, Biodiversity etc.

Climate Change Budget and Finance

Currently, the province does not benefit from any dedicated climate change funding.