LTAS Maps

One of the key outcomes of the LTAS process was the development of "Projected climate futures for South Africa". The LTAS states that four broad climate scenarios could usefully represent plausible climate outcomes over the coming century given the two main groups of emissions scenarios namely unmitigated (unconstrained) and mitigated (constrained) future energy pathways.


South Africa’s climate future from 2025 and beyond can be described using four broad climate scenarios at national scale, with different degrees of change and likelihood that capture the results of global mitigation action and the
passing of time:

  1. Warmer (<3°C above 1961–2000) and wetter, with greater frequency of extreme rainfall events. 
  2. Warmer (<3°C above 1961–2000) and drier, with an increase in the frequency of drought events and somewhat greater frequency of extreme rainfall events. 
  3. Hotter (>3°C above 1961–2000) and wetter, with substantially greater frequency of extreme rainfall events. 
  4. Hotter (>3°C above 1961–2000) and drier, with a substantial increase in the frequency of drought events and greater frequency of extreme rainfall events.

The map below is a summary of Rainfall projections within each of these scenarios for South Africa’s six hydrological zone.


Source: DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs). 2013. Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Flagship Research Programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate Trends and Scenarios for South Africa. Pretoria, South Africa.